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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Kansas City Chiefs 4th & 8 at the 77

Kansas City Chiefs 13 – Cincinnati Bengals 6

What Actually Happened

(13:38) 5-T.Townsend punts 44 yards to CIN 33, Center-41-J.Winchester. 11-T.Taylor to CIN 38 for 5 yards (13-N.Johnson).

The Three Options

GO -1.85 EP
  • 42% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 69, worth +1.69 EP
  • 58% chance to fail: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 77, worth -4.38 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (94 yards).

PUNT -1.64 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Cincinnati Bengals would take over around their own 34, worth -1.64 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model