Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Cincinnati Bengals 4th & 17 at the 82

Cincinnati Bengals 13 – Kansas City Chiefs 20

What Actually Happened

(3:05) 4-D.Chrisman punts 41 yards to KC 41, Center-48-C.Adomitis. 24-S.Moore to CIN 34 for 25 yards (49-J.Bachie). PENALTY on KC-6-B.Cook, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at KC 41.

The Three Options

GO -2.92 EP

30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.76 EP
70% chance to fail: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 82, worth -4.89 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (99 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model