Win Probability
Confidence: <strong>clear edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.
Key Insights
- Nathan Peterman (CHI): -0.529 EPA/dropback in prior starts (CHI starting Nathan Peterman in place of Justin Fields)
- CHI defense: +0.184 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (32nd in the league)
- CHI offense: -0.060 EPA/play over its last 8 games (24th in the league)
- MIN offense: -0.034 EPA/play over its last 8 games (19th in the league)
- MIN defense: +0.071 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (30th in the league)
Predicted Final Score
Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.
Injury Report — Week 18
MIN
CHI
Pulled fresh for 2022 week 18 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.
Actual Result
Prediction missed by 11 pts on margin, 1 pts on total.
Scoring Summary
- Q1 10:16 TD MIN (10:16) 8-K.Cousins pass short right to 19-A.Thielen for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN. MIN 6 – CHI 0
- Q2 09:24 TD MIN (9:24) 68-K.Hinton reported in as eligible. 2-A.Mattison right tackle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. MIN 12 – CHI 0
- Q2 05:02 FG MIN (5:02) 1-G.Joseph 28 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-A.DePaola, Holder-14-R.Wright. MIN 16 – CHI 0
- Q2 03:42 TD CHI (3:42) 12-V.Jones right end for 42 yards, TOUCHDOWN. MIN 16 – CHI 6
- Q3 09:28 TD MIN (9:28) (No Huddle) 2-A.Mattison left tackle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. MIN 22 – CHI 6
- Q3 04:16 TD CHI (4:16) 14-N.Peterman pass short left to 85-C.Kmet for 11 yards, TOUCHDOWN. MIN 23 – CHI 12
- Q4 15:00 FG MIN (15:00) 1-G.Joseph 50 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-A.DePaola, Holder-14-R.Wright. MIN 26 – CHI 13
- Q4 03:43 FG MIN (3:43) 1-G.Joseph 41 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-A.DePaola, Holder-14-R.Wright. MIN 29 – CHI 13
Fourth-Down Decisions
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Q1 CHI 4th & 1 at the 70Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.05 EPp(convert) 72%
(12:38) 16-T.Gill punts 43 yards to MIN 27, Center-48-P.Scales, downed by CHI-23-A.Colbert.
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Q1 CHI 4th & 12 at the 34Chose PUNT Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.88 EPp(convert) 28% p(FG) 72%
(7:14) 16-T.Gill punts 24 yards to MIN 10, Center-48-P.Scales. 5-J.Reagor ran ob at MIN 14 for 4 yards.
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Q1 CHI 4th & 7 at the 40Chose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 37% p(FG) 58%
(:53) (Shotgun) 14-N.Peterman pass short middle to 18-D.Pettis to MIN 34 for 6 yards (39-C.Sullivan, 25-T.Jackson).
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Q2 MIN 4th & 9 at the 10Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 31% p(FG) 97%
(5:02) 1-G.Joseph 28 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-A.DePaola, Holder-14-R.Wright.
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Q4 MIN 4th & 15 at the 32Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 26% p(FG) 76%
(15:00) 1-G.Joseph 50 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-A.DePaola, Holder-14-R.Wright.
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Q4 CHI 4th & 15 at the 62Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 28%
(11:39) 16-T.Gill punts 44 yards to MIN 18, Center-48-P.Scales, out of bounds.
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Q4 CHI 4th & 12 at the 41Chose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 29% p(FG) 56%
(7:20) (Shotgun) 14-N.Peterman pass incomplete deep right to 12-V.Jones.
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Q4 MIN 4th & 3 at the 23 late-gameChose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 51% p(FG) 89%
(3:43) 1-G.Joseph 41 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-A.DePaola, Holder-14-R.Wright.
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Q4 CHI 4th & 10 at the 76 late-gameChose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 36%
(3:20) (Shotgun) 17-T.Boyle pass deep right intended for 10-C.Claypool INTERCEPTED by 20-D.Shelley at MIN 36. 20-D.Shelley to MIN 36 for no gain (10-C.Claypool).
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Q4 MIN 4th & 7 at the 61 late-gameChose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 41%
(:56) 14-R.Wright punts 35 yards to CHI 26, Center-42-A.DePaola. 18-D.Pettis to CHI 24 for -2 yards (25-T.Jackson).