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Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades.
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Q4
Chicago Bears
4th & 12 at the 41
Chicago Bears 13 – Minnesota Vikings 26
What Actually Happened
(7:20) (Shotgun) 14-N.Peterman pass incomplete deep right to 12-V.Jones.
The Three Options
GO
-0.06 EP
What Happened
-
29% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 29, worth +4.06 EP
- 71% chance to fail: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 41, worth -1.75 EP
KICK
+0.00 EP
Model's Pick
- 56% chance to make a 58-yard field goal: 3 points, then Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.86 EP
- 44% chance to miss: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 49, worth -2.33 EP
PUNT
-0.34 EP
- Minnesota Vikings would take over around their own 12, worth -0.34 EP
The Verdict
Chose GO
✓ matched the model
