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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Chicago Bears 4th & 1 at the 70

Chicago Bears 0 – Minnesota Vikings 0

What Actually Happened

(12:38) 16-T.Gill punts 43 yards to MIN 27, Center-48-P.Scales, downed by CHI-23-A.Colbert.

The Three Options

GO +0.36 EP
Model's Pick
  • 72% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 69, worth +1.99 EP
  • 28% chance to fail: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 70, worth -3.82 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (87 yards).

PUNT -0.69 EP
What Happened
  • Minnesota Vikings would take over around their own 28, worth -0.69 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.05 EP