LA @ GB — 4th & Data

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HC Sean McVay

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HC Matt LaFleur

Monday 2022-12-19 · 20:15 Lambeau Field, Green Bay US 🌨 Snow Spread 8.0 O/U 39.5

Win Probability

32.8%

67.2%

🌨 Snow

Confidence: <strong>clear edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

LA offense: -0.065 EPA/play over its last 8 games (27th in the league)
Baker Mayfield (LA): -0.142 EPA/dropback in prior starts
GB defense: +0.066 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (25th in the league)
GB on 4 more days rest than LA
LA defense: +0.073 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (26th in the league)

Predicted Final Score

LA 20

–

GB 25

Projected margin: GB by 5 Projected total: 45

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 15

LA

Marquise Copeland DT Out Ankle

Aaron Donald DT Out Ankle

Travin Howard LB Out Hip

David Long CB Out Groin

John Wolford QB Out Neck

Brian Allen C Questionable Knee

GB

David Bakhtiari T Out Knee

Pulled fresh for 2022 week 15 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

LA 12

–

GB 24

Prediction missed by 7 pts on margin, 9 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

Q1 04:29 FG GB (4:29) 2-M.Crosby 34 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-56-J.Coco, Holder-16-P.O'Donnell. LA 0 – GB 3
Q2 10:45 FG LA (10:45) 8-M.Gay 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-M.Orzech, Holder-11-R.Dixon. LA 3 – GB 3
Q2 04:33 TD GB (4:33) (Shotgun) 28-A.Dillon up the middle for 8 yards, TOUCHDOWN. LA 3 – GB 9
Q2 00:51 FG LA (:51) 8-M.Gay 55 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-M.Orzech, Holder-11-R.Dixon. LA 6 – GB 10
Q3 08:09 TD GB (8:09) 28-A.Dillon right tackle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. LA 6 – GB 16
Q3 02:36 TD GB (2:36) (Shotgun) 12-A.Rodgers pass short left to 33-A.Jones for 7 yards, TOUCHDOWN. LA 6 – GB 23
Q3 00:26 TD LA (:26) (Shotgun) 17-B.Mayfield pass short middle to 89-T.Higbee for 8 yards, TOUCHDOWN. LA 12 – GB 24

Fourth-Down Decisions

Q1 LA 4th & 17 at the 60

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 26%

(10:52) 11-R.Dixon punts 47 yards to GB 13, Center-42-M.Orzech. 25-K.Nixon to GB 32 for 19 yards (42-M.Orzech, 41-M.Brown).
Q1 GB 4th & 16 at the 16

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 24% p(FG) 94%

(4:29) 2-M.Crosby 34 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-56-J.Coco, Holder-16-P.O'Donnell.
Q1 LA 4th & 11 at the 75

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 34%

(2:43) 11-R.Dixon punts 31 yards to GB 44, Center-42-M.Orzech, out of bounds.
Q2 LA 4th & 7 at the 15

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 34% p(FG) 95%

(10:45) 8-M.Gay 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-M.Orzech, Holder-11-R.Dixon.
Q2 GB 4th & 3 at the 17

Chose GO ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 49% p(FG) 94%

(5:51) (Shotgun) 28-A.Dillon left tackle to LA 13 for 4 yards (92-J.Williams).
Q2 LA 4th & 10 at the 37

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 31% p(FG) 64%

(:51) 8-M.Gay 55 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-M.Orzech, Holder-11-R.Dixon.
Q3 LA 4th & 10 at the 74

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 35%

(5:43) 11-R.Dixon punts 41 yards to GB 33, Center-42-M.Orzech. 25-K.Nixon pushed ob at 50 for 17 yards (11-R.Dixon). PENALTY on LA-21-R.Yeast, Face Mask, 15 yards, enforced at 50.
Q4 GB 4th & 17 at the 42

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 26% p(FG) 51%

(13:21) 16-P.O'Donnell punts 37 yards to LA 5, Center-56-J.Coco. 19-B.Powell ran ob at LA 13 for 8 yards (84-T.Davis).
Q4 LA 4th & 15 at the 46

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 26% p(FG) 41%

(8:58) 11-R.Dixon punts 32 yards to GB 14, Center-42-M.Orzech, fair catch by 18-R.Cobb.
Q4 GB 4th & 2 at the 4 late-game

Chose GO ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 55% p(FG) 98%

(1:57) (Shotgun) 33-A.Jones left guard to LA 1 for 3 yards (91-G.Gaines).