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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Los Angeles Rams 4th & 11 at the 75

Los Angeles Rams 0 – Green Bay Packers 3

What Actually Happened

(2:43) 11-R.Dixon punts 31 yards to GB 44, Center-42-M.Orzech, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -2.41 EP
  • 34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 64, worth +1.62 EP
  • 66% chance to fail: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 75, worth -4.49 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (92 yards).

PUNT -1.88 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Green Bay Packers would take over around their own 32, worth -1.88 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model