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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Green Bay Packers 4th & 16 at the 16

Green Bay Packers 0 – Los Angeles Rams 0

What Actually Happened

(4:29) 2-M.Crosby 34 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-56-J.Coco, Holder-16-P.O'Donnell.

The Three Options

GO +1.17 EP
  • 24% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +6.22 EP
  • 76% chance to fail: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 16, worth -0.40 EP
KICK +2.10 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 94% chance to make a 33-yard field goal: 3 points, then Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.28 EP
  • 6% chance to miss: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 26, worth -0.75 EP
PUNT +0.14 EP
  • Los Angeles Rams would take over around their own 11, worth +0.14 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model