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Detroit Lions

HC Dan Campbell
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DAL Home

Dallas Cowboys

HC Mike McCarthy
Sunday 2022-10-23 · 13:00 AT&T Stadium, Arlington US 🏟 Dome Spread 7.0 O/U 49.5

Win Probability

DET
45.7%
DAL
54.3%
🏟 Dome

Confidence: <strong>coin flip</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • DET offense: +0.066 EPA/play over its last 8 games (7th in the league)
  • DET defense: +0.213 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (32nd in the league)
  • DET on 7 more days rest than DAL
  • Indoors — weather neutralised
  • DAL defense: -0.041 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (6th in the league)
  • Jared Goff (DET): -0.005 EPA/dropback in prior starts

Predicted Final Score

DET 22
–
DAL 25
Projected margin: DAL by 3 Projected total: 47

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 7

DET

D.J. Chark WR Out Ankle
Charles Harris DE Out Groin
Ifeatu Melifonwu S Out Ankle
Matt Nelson T Out Calf
Bobby Price CB Out Knee
Chris Board LB Questionable Knee
John Cominsky DT Questionable Wrist
Will Harris CB Questionable Hip
Josh Reynolds WR Questionable Knee
D'Andre Swift RB Questionable Ankle

DAL

Matt Waletzko T Out Shoulder

Pulled fresh for 2022 week 7 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

DET 6
–
DAL 24

Prediction missed by 15 pts on margin, 17 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 04:02 FG DET (4:02) 17-M.Badgley 40 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-S.Daly, Holder-3-J.Fox. DET 3 – DAL 0
  • Q2 12:27 FG DAL (12:27) 19-B.Maher 22 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-45-M.Overton, Holder-5-B.Anger. DET 3 – DAL 3
  • Q2 08:03 FG DET (8:03) 17-M.Badgley 53 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-S.Daly, Holder-3-J.Fox. DET 6 – DAL 3
  • Q3 10:21 TD DAL (10:21) 21-E.Elliott up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. DET 6 – DAL 9
  • Q4 02:51 TD DAL (2:51) 21-E.Elliott up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. DET 6 – DAL 16
  • Q4 02:00 TD DAL (2:00) 4-D.Prescott pass short left to 89-P.Hendershot for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. DET-44-M.Rodriguez was injured during the play. His return is Questionable. DET 6 – DAL 23

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 DAL 4th & 17 at the 82
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 31%

    (13:37) 5-B.Anger punts 56 yards to DET 26, Center-45-M.Overton. 11-K.Raymond pushed ob at DET 39 for 13 yards (85-N.Brown).

  • Q1 DET 4th & 7 at the 47
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 39% p(FG) 42%

    (10:47) 47-S.Daly to DET 39 for -14 yards. FUMBLES, recovered by DET-3-J.Fox at DET 39. 3-J.Fox punts 47 yards to end zone, Touchback.

  • Q1 DAL 4th & 3 at the 73
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 58%

    (9:00) 5-B.Anger punts 43 yards to DET 30, Center-45-M.Overton, fair catch by 11-K.Raymond.

  • Q1 DET 4th & 7 at the 21
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 36% p(FG) 91%

    (4:02) 17-M.Badgley 40 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-S.Daly, Holder-3-J.Fox.

  • Q2 DAL 4th & 2 at the 3
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.87 EP
    p(convert) 56% p(FG) 98%

    (12:27) 19-B.Maher 22 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-45-M.Overton, Holder-5-B.Anger.

  • Q2 DET 4th & 13 at the 34
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 28% p(FG) 73%

    (8:03) 17-M.Badgley 53 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-S.Daly, Holder-3-J.Fox.

  • Q2 DAL 4th & 20 at the 85
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 29%

    (6:48) 5-B.Anger punts 49 yards to DET 36, Center-45-M.Overton, fair catch by 11-K.Raymond.

  • Q2 DET 4th & 10 at the 64
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 35%

    (4:14) 3-J.Fox punts 54 yards to DAL 10, Center-47-S.Daly. 9-K.Turpin to DAL 24 for 14 yards (44-M.Rodriguez).

  • Q3 DET 4th & 8 at the 50
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 37% p(FG) 35%

    (7:11) 3-J.Fox punts 43 yards to DAL 7, Center-47-S.Daly. 9-K.Turpin to DET 41 for 52 yards (5-D.Elliott).

  • Q3 DAL 4th & 14 at the 45
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 30% p(FG) 47%

    (4:31) 5-B.Anger punts 45 yards to end zone, Center-45-M.Overton, Touchback.

  • Q4 DAL 4th & 1 at the 71
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.34 EP
    p(convert) 74%

    (9:59) 5-B.Anger punts 50 yards to DET 21, Center-45-M.Overton, fair catch by 11-K.Raymond.