Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Detroit Lions 4th & 10 at the 64

Detroit Lions 6 – Dallas Cowboys 3

(4:14) 3-J.Fox punts 54 yards to DAL 10, Center-47-S.Daly. 9-K.Turpin to DAL 24 for 14 yards (44-M.Rodriguez).

The Three Options

GO -1.46 EP

35% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 54, worth +2.38 EP
65% chance to fail: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 64, worth -3.55 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (81 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model