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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Detroit Lions 4th & 7 at the 21

Detroit Lions 0 – Dallas Cowboys 0

What Actually Happened

(4:02) 17-M.Badgley 40 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-S.Daly, Holder-3-J.Fox.

The Three Options

GO +1.10 EP
  • 36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 14, worth +4.95 EP
  • 64% chance to fail: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 21, worth -1.02 EP
KICK +1.34 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 91% chance to make a 38-yard field goal: 3 points, then Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.64 EP
  • 9% chance to miss: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 31, worth -1.78 EP
PUNT -0.36 EP
  • Dallas Cowboys would take over around their own 11, worth -0.36 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model