CHI @ GB — 4th & Data

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HC Matt Eberflus

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Green Bay Packers

HC Matt LaFleur

Sunday 2022-09-18 · 20:20 Lambeau Field, Green Bay US ☀️ Clear Spread 10.5 O/U 42.0

Win Probability

CHI

24.5%

75.5%

☀️ Clear

Confidence: <strong>strong edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

QB edge to GB: Aaron Rodgers (GB) +0.201 vs Justin Fields (CHI) -0.208 EPA/dropback
GB offense: +0.117 EPA/play over its last 8 games (3rd in the league)
CHI offense: -0.081 EPA/play over its last 8 games (25th in the league)

Predicted Final Score

CHI 19

–

GB 27

Projected margin: GB by 8 Projected total: 46

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 2

CHI

Velus Jones WR Doubtful Hamstring

GB

Elgton Jenkins G Questionable Knee

David Bakhtiari T Questionable Knee

Allen Lazard WR Questionable Ankle

Jon Runyan G Questionable Concussion

Pulled fresh for 2022 week 2 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

CHI 10

–

GB 27

Prediction missed by 9 pts on margin, 9 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

Q1 08:37 FG GB (8:37) 2-M.Crosby 40 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-56-J.Coco, Holder-16-P.O'Donnell. CHI 0 – GB 3
Q1 04:42 TD CHI (4:42) 1-J.Fields right end for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CHI 6 – GB 3
Q2 15:00 TD GB (15:00) (Shotgun) 33-A.Jones right end for 15 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CHI 7 – GB 9
Q2 04:40 TD GB (4:40) (Shotgun) 12-A.Rodgers pass short middle to 33-A.Jones for 8 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CHI 7 – GB 16
Q2 00:35 TD GB (:35) (Shotgun) 12-A.Rodgers pass short middle to 13-A.Lazard for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CHI 7 – GB 23
Q3 05:16 FG CHI (5:16) 2-C.Santos 44 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-P.Scales, Holder-16-T.Gill. CHI 10 – GB 24
Q4 02:32 FG GB (2:32) 2-M.Crosby 28 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-56-J.Coco, Holder-16-P.O'Donnell. CHI 10 – GB 27

Fourth-Down Decisions

Q1 GB 4th & 19 at the 22

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 23% p(FG) 89%

(8:37) 2-M.Crosby 40 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-56-J.Coco, Holder-16-P.O'Donnell.
Q2 CHI 4th & 12 at the 82

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 32%

(12:55) 16-T.Gill punts 43 yards to GB 39, Center-48-P.Scales, fair catch by 8-Am.Rodgers.
Q2 CHI 4th & 12 at the 82

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 32%

(10:21) 16-T.Gill punts 56 yards to GB 26, Center-48-P.Scales. 8-Am.Rodgers to GB 46 for 20 yards (48-P.Scales).
Q2 CHI 4th & 6 at the 81

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 43%

(3:19) 16-T.Gill punts 42 yards to GB 39, Center-48-P.Scales. 8-Am.Rodgers MUFFS catch, and recovers at GB 43. 8-Am.Rodgers to GB 43 for no gain (24-K.Herbert). PENALTY on GB-6-D.Leavitt, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at GB 43.
Q3 CHI 4th & 3 at the 71

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.47 EP

p(convert) 54%

(13:08) 16-T.Gill punts 57 yards to GB 14, Center-48-P.Scales. 8-Am.Rodgers to GB 14 for no gain (39-J.Blackwell).
Q3 CHI 4th & 5 at the 26

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 39% p(FG) 84%

(5:16) 2-C.Santos 44 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-P.Scales, Holder-16-T.Gill.
Q4 GB 4th & 15 at the 60

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 30%

(15:00) 16-P.O'Donnell punts 50 yards to CHI 10, Center-56-J.Coco, fair catch by 18-D.Pettis.
Q4 CHI 4th & 1 at the 1

Chose GO ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 63% p(FG) 99%

(8:13) (Shotgun) 1-J.Fields up the middle to GB 1 for no gain (91-P.Smith; 90-J.Reed). Chicago challenged the short of the goal line ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands. (Timeout #1.)
Q4 GB 4th & 5 at the 10 late-game

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 40% p(FG) 97%

(2:32) 2-M.Crosby 28 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-56-J.Coco, Holder-16-P.O'Donnell.