Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Green Bay Packers 4th & 15 at the 60

Green Bay Packers 24 – Chicago Bears 10

(15:00) 16-P.O'Donnell punts 50 yards to CHI 10, Center-56-J.Coco, fair catch by 18-D.Pettis.

The Three Options

GO -1.42 EP

30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 45, worth +2.94 EP
70% chance to fail: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 60, worth -3.24 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (77 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model