Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Chicago Bears 4th & 6 at the 81

Chicago Bears 7 – Green Bay Packers 17

What Actually Happened

(3:19) 16-T.Gill punts 42 yards to GB 39, Center-48-P.Scales. 8-Am.Rodgers MUFFS catch, and recovers at GB 43. 8-Am.Rodgers to GB 43 for no gain (24-K.Herbert). PENALTY on GB-6-D.Leavitt, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at GB 43.

The Three Options

GO -2.28 EP

43% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 75, worth +0.99 EP
57% chance to fail: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 81, worth -4.76 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (98 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model