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Las Vegas Raiders

HC Josh McDaniels
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Los Angeles Chargers

HC Brandon Staley
Sunday 2022-09-11 · 16:25 SoFi Stadium, Inglewood US 🏟 Dome Spread 3.5 O/U 52.5

Win Probability

LV
37.7%
LAC
62.3%
🏟 Dome

Confidence: <strong>clear edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • LAC offense: +0.113 EPA/play over its last 8 games (4th in the league)
  • Justin Herbert (LAC): +0.140 EPA/dropback in prior starts
  • LAC defense: +0.046 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (22nd in the league)
  • Indoors — weather neutralised
  • LV defense: +0.088 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (28th in the league)

Predicted Final Score

LV 22
–
LAC 27
Projected margin: LAC by 5 Projected total: 49

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 1

LV

No players on the report.

LAC

J.C. Jackson CB Doubtful Ankle
Donald Parham TE Doubtful Hamstring
Drue Tranquill LB Questionable Back

Pulled fresh for 2022 week 1 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

LV 19
–
LAC 24

Prediction missed by 0 pts on margin, 6 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 09:07 FG LAC (9:07) 6-D.Hopkins 43 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-16-J.Scott. LV 0 – LAC 3
  • Q1 02:33 FG LV (2:33) 2-D.Carlson 23 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-T.Sieg, Holder-6-A.Cole. LV 3 – LAC 3
  • Q2 09:38 TD LAC (9:38) 10-J.Herbert pass short left to 40-Z.Horvath for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. LV 3 – LAC 9
  • Q2 00:40 TD LAC (:40) (Shotgun) 10-J.Herbert pass deep middle to 1-D.Carter for 23 yards, TOUCHDOWN. LV 3 – LAC 16
  • Q3 12:45 TD LV (12:45) (Shotgun) 4-D.Carr pass deep left to 34-B.Bolden for 18 yards, TOUCHDOWN. LV 9 – LAC 17
  • Q3 06:50 TD LAC (6:50) (Shotgun) 10-J.Herbert pass short left to 7-G.Everett for 18 yards, TOUCHDOWN. LV 10 – LAC 23
  • Q3 01:08 FG LV (1:08) 2-D.Carlson 55 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-T.Sieg, Holder-6-A.Cole. LV 13 – LAC 24
  • Q4 04:36 TD LV (4:36) (Shotgun) 4-D.Carr pass short right to 17-D.Adams for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN. LV 19 – LAC 24

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 LAC 4th & 9 at the 25
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 34% p(FG) 87%

    (9:07) 6-D.Hopkins 43 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-16-J.Scott.

  • Q1 LV 4th & 5 at the 5
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.50 EP
    p(convert) 39% p(FG) 98%

    (2:33) 2-D.Carlson 23 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-T.Sieg, Holder-6-A.Cole.

  • Q1 LAC 4th & 1 at the 51
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.72 EP
    p(convert) 73% p(FG) 32%

    (:40) 16-J.Scott punts 49 yards to LV 2, Center-47-J.Harris, downed by LAC-57-A.Ogbongbemiga.

  • Q2 LV 4th & 1 at the 89
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.55 EP
    p(convert) 75%

    (13:26) 6-A.Cole punts 56 yards to LAC 33, Center-47-T.Sieg, out of bounds.

  • Q2 LV 4th & 14 at the 59
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 30%

    (7:16) 6-A.Cole punts 50 yards to LAC 9, Center-47-T.Sieg, fair catch by 1-D.Carter.

  • Q2 LAC 4th & 1 at the 28
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 70% p(FG) 84%

    (1:40) (No Huddle) 10-J.Herbert up the middle to LV 28 for no gain (98-M.Crosby, 97-A.Billings).

  • Q3 LV 4th & 4 at the 34
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 46% p(FG) 73%

    (3:50) (Shotgun) 4-D.Carr pass short middle to 13-H.Renfrow to LAC 26 for 8 yards (24-N.Adderley). FUMBLES (24-N.Adderley), and recovers at LAC 25.

  • Q4 LAC 4th & 5 at the 70
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 50%

    (14:53) 16-J.Scott punts 51 yards to LV 19, Center-47-J.Harris. 13-H.Renfrow to LV 23 for 4 yards (49-D.Tranquill). LV-34-B.Bolden was injured during the play.

  • Q4 LAC 4th & 1 at the 89
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.48 EP
    p(convert) 76%

    (11:48) 16-J.Scott punts 49 yards to LV 40, Center-47-J.Harris, fair catch by 13-H.Renfrow.

  • Q4 LAC 4th & 5 at the 31
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 45% p(FG) 79%

    (7:37) 6-D.Hopkins 49 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-16-J.Scott.

  • Q4 LAC 4th & 3 at the 68 late-game
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.33 EP
    p(convert) 58%

    (3:39) 16-J.Scott punts 47 yards to LV 21, Center-47-J.Harris. 13-H.Renfrow to LV 21 for no gain (36-J.Taylor).

  • Q4 LV 4th & 8 at the 65 late-game
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 39%

    (2:00) (Shotgun) 4-D.Carr sacked at LV 28 for -7 yards (52-K.Mack). FUMBLES (52-K.Mack) [52-K.Mack], recovered by LV-74-K.Miller at LV 28.