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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Los Angeles Chargers 4th & 1 at the 89

Los Angeles Chargers 24 – Las Vegas Raiders 13

What Actually Happened

(11:48) 16-J.Scott punts 49 yards to LV 40, Center-47-J.Harris, fair catch by 13-H.Renfrow.

The Three Options

GO -1.09 EP
Model's Pick
  • 76% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 88, worth +0.11 EP
  • 24% chance to fail: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 89, worth -5.00 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (106 yards).

PUNT -2.56 EP
What Happened
  • Las Vegas Raiders would take over around their own 46, worth -2.56 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.48 EP