Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Los Angeles Chargers 4th & 5 at the 70

Los Angeles Chargers 24 – Las Vegas Raiders 13

What Actually Happened

(14:53) 16-J.Scott punts 51 yards to LV 19, Center-47-J.Harris. 13-H.Renfrow to LV 23 for 4 yards (49-D.Tranquill). LV-34-B.Bolden was injured during the play.

The Three Options

GO -1.25 EP

50% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.47 EP
50% chance to fail: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 70, worth -3.93 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (87 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model