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Buffalo Bills

HC Sean McDermott
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Los Angeles Rams

HC Sean McVay
Thursday 2022-09-08 · 20:20 SoFi Stadium, Inglewood US 🏟 Dome Spread -1.0 O/U 51.5

Win Probability

BUF
54.7%
LA
45.3%
🏟 Dome

Confidence: <strong>coin flip</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • BUF offense: +0.187 EPA/play over its last 8 games (3rd in the league)
  • LA defense: -0.095 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (6th in the league)
  • Indoors — weather neutralised
  • LA offense: +0.032 EPA/play over its last 8 games (10th in the league)
  • QB edge to LA: Matthew Stafford (LA) +0.160 vs Josh Allen (BUF) +0.153 EPA/dropback

Predicted Final Score

BUF 26
–
LA 25
Projected margin: BUF by 1 Projected total: 51

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 1

BUF

Tommy Doyle T Questionable Foot
Quintin Morris TE Questionable Hamstring

LA

Van Jefferson WR Out Knee

Pulled fresh for 2022 week 1 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

BUF 31
–
LA 10

Prediction missed by 20 pts on margin, 10 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 10:03 TD BUF (10:03) 17-J.Allen pass short right to 13-G.Davis for 26 yards, TOUCHDOWN. BUF 6 – LA 0
  • Q2 08:51 FG BUF (8:51) 2-T.Bass 41 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-8-S.Martin. BUF 10 – LA 0
  • Q2 03:05 TD LA (3:05) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass short right to 10-C.Kupp for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN. BUF 10 – LA 6
  • Q2 00:04 FG LA (:04) 8-M.Gay 57 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-M.Orzech, Holder-11-R.Dixon. BUF 10 – LA 10
  • Q3 08:02 TD BUF (8:02) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass short right to 6-I.McKenzie for 7 yards, TOUCHDOWN. BUF 16 – LA 10
  • Q4 13:34 TD BUF (13:34) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen scrambles right end for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN. BUF 23 – LA 10
  • Q4 09:33 TD BUF (9:33) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass deep right to 14-S.Diggs for 53 yards, TOUCHDOWN. BUF 30 – LA 10

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 LA 4th & 8 at the 45
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 36% p(FG) 47%

    (5:14) 11-R.Dixon punts 36 yards to BUF 9, Center-42-M.Orzech, fair catch by 80-J.Crowder.

  • Q2 LA 4th & 3 at the 69
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 55%

    (14:20) 11-R.Dixon punts 57 yards to BUF 12, Center-42-M.Orzech. 80-J.Crowder to BUF 32 for 20 yards (35-J.Hummel).

  • Q2 BUF 4th & 4 at the 23
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 46% p(FG) 90%

    (8:51) 2-T.Bass 41 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-8-S.Martin.

  • Q2 LA 4th & 2 at the 28
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 57% p(FG) 84%

    (4:54) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass short right to 10-C.Kupp to BUF 25 for 3 yards (58-M.Milano, 91-E.Oliver). BUF-91-E.Oliver was injured during the play.

  • Q3 LA 4th & 11 at the 90
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 36%

    (13:08) 11-R.Dixon punts 48 yards to BUF 42, Center-42-M.Orzech, fair catch by 80-J.Crowder.

  • Q3 LA 4th & 18 at the 50
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 25% p(FG) 35%

    (5:18) 11-R.Dixon punts 39 yards to BUF 11, Center-42-M.Orzech, fair catch by 80-J.Crowder.

  • Q4 LA 4th & 1 at the 67
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 72%

    (8:23) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 27-D.Henderson up the middle to LA 34 for 1 yard (30-D.Jackson).

  • Q4 LA 4th & 14 at the 16 late-game
    Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +1.38 EP
    p(convert) 25% p(FG) 95%

    (:47) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass incomplete deep left to 1-Al.Robinson (47-C.Benford).