Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Los Angeles Rams 4th & 8 at the 45

Los Angeles Rams 0 – Buffalo Bills 7

(5:14) 11-R.Dixon punts 36 yards to BUF 9, Center-42-M.Orzech, fair catch by 80-J.Crowder.

The Three Options

GO +0.08 EP

36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 37, worth +3.76 EP
64% chance to fail: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 45, worth -1.99 EP

KICK -0.21 EP

47% chance to make a 62-yard field goal: 3 points, then Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.36 EP
53% chance to miss: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 49, worth -2.50 EP

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model