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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Buffalo Bills 4th & 4 at the 23

Buffalo Bills 7 – Los Angeles Rams 0

What Actually Happened

(8:51) 2-T.Bass 41 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-8-S.Martin.

The Three Options

GO +1.45 EP
Model's Pick
  • 46% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 19, worth +4.58 EP
  • 54% chance to fail: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 23, worth -1.28 EP
KICK +1.20 EP
What Happened
  • 90% chance to make a 40-yard field goal: 3 points, then Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.56 EP
  • 10% chance to miss: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 33, worth -1.86 EP
PUNT -0.46 EP
  • Los Angeles Rams would take over around their own 11, worth -0.46 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model