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Kansas City Chiefs

HC Andy Reid
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PHI Home

Philadelphia Eagles

HC Nick Sirianni
Sunday 2021-10-03 · 13:00 Lincoln Financial Field, Philadelphia US ☀️ Clear Spread -7.5 O/U 53.5

Win Probability

KC
62.8%
PHI
37.2%
☀️ Clear

Confidence: <strong>clear edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • KC offense: +0.214 EPA/play over its last 8 games (3rd in the league)
  • Patrick Mahomes (KC): +0.411 EPA/dropback in prior starts
  • KC defense: +0.231 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (31st in the league)
  • Jalen Hurts (PHI) has only 3 prior starts in the data — thin sample

Predicted Final Score

KC 26
–
PHI 25
Projected margin: KC by 1 Projected total: 51

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 4

KC

Rashad Fenton CB Out Concussion
Frank Clark DE Questionable Hamstring
Charvarius Ward CB Questionable Quadricep

PHI

Jordan Mailata T Out Knee

Pulled fresh for 2021 week 4 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

KC 42
–
PHI 30

Prediction missed by 11 pts on margin, 21 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 11:41 FG PHI (11:41) 4-J.Elliott 29 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-45-R.Lovato, Holder-8-A.Siposs. KC 0 – PHI 3
  • Q1 08:06 TD KC (8:06) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass short middle to 25-C.Edwards-Helaire for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. KC 6 – PHI 3
  • Q1 02:02 TD PHI (2:02) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 1-J.Hurts pass short right to 88-D.Goedert for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN. KC 7 – PHI 9
  • Q2 09:29 TD KC (9:29) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass short left to 10-T.Hill for 6 yards, TOUCHDOWN. KC 13 – PHI 10
  • Q2 03:38 FG PHI (3:38) 4-J.Elliott 25 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-45-R.Lovato, Holder-8-A.Siposs. KC 14 – PHI 13
  • Q2 00:59 TD KC (:59) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass short middle to 88-J.Fortson for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. KC 20 – PHI 13
  • Q3 07:11 FG PHI (7:11) 4-J.Elliott 31 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-45-R.Lovato, Holder-8-A.Siposs. KC 21 – PHI 16
  • Q3 00:54 TD KC (:54) 31-Da.Williams up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. KC 27 – PHI 16
  • Q4 12:46 TD PHI (12:46) (Shotgun) 14-K.Gainwell up the middle for 7 yards, TOUCHDOWN. KC 28 – PHI 22
  • Q4 06:48 TD KC (6:48) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass short left to 10-T.Hill for 12 yards, TOUCHDOWN. KC 34 – PHI 23
  • Q4 02:37 TD KC (2:37) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass deep left to 10-T.Hill for 44 yards, TOUCHDOWN. KC 41 – PHI 23
  • Q4 00:11 TD PHI (:11) (Shotgun) 1-J.Hurts pass short middle to 84-G.Ward for 15 yards, TOUCHDOWN. KC 42 – PHI 29

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 PHI 4th & 3 at the 11
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.75 EP
    p(convert) 50% p(FG) 96%

    (11:41) 4-J.Elliott 29 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-45-R.Lovato, Holder-8-A.Siposs.

  • Q1 PHI 4th & 2 at the 20
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 58% p(FG) 91%

    (3:46) (Shotgun) 1-J.Hurts pass short right to 14-K.Gainwell to KC 8 for 12 yards (38-L.Sneed).

  • Q2 PHI 4th & 7 at the 7
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 36% p(FG) 98%

    (3:38) 4-J.Elliott 25 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-45-R.Lovato, Holder-8-A.Siposs.

  • Q3 PHI 4th & 13 at the 13
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 27% p(FG) 95%

    (7:11) 4-J.Elliott 31 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-45-R.Lovato, Holder-8-A.Siposs.

  • Q4 PHI 4th & 11 at the 35 late-game
    Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.31 EP
    p(convert) 32% p(FG) 66%

    (4:34) (Shotgun) 1-J.Hurts pass incomplete short right.