4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Philadelphia Eagles 4th & 2 at the 20

Philadelphia Eagles 3 – Kansas City Chiefs 7

What Actually Happened

(3:46) (Shotgun) 1-J.Hurts pass short right to 14-K.Gainwell to KC 8 for 12 yards (38-L.Sneed).

The Three Options

GO +2.59 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 58% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 18, worth +4.98 EP
  • 42% chance to fail: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 20, worth -0.71 EP
KICK +1.75 EP
  • 91% chance to make a 37-yard field goal: 3 points, then Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.07 EP
  • 9% chance to miss: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 30, worth -1.32 EP
PUNT -0.11 EP
  • Kansas City Chiefs would take over around their own 11, worth -0.11 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model