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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Philadelphia Eagles 4th & 13 at the 13

Philadelphia Eagles 13 – Kansas City Chiefs 21

What Actually Happened

(7:11) 4-J.Elliott 31 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-45-R.Lovato, Holder-8-A.Siposs.

The Three Options

GO +1.67 EP
  • 27% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +6.18 EP
  • 73% chance to fail: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 13, worth -0.01 EP
KICK +2.11 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 95% chance to make a 30-yard field goal: 3 points, then Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.24 EP
  • 5% chance to miss: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 23, worth -0.65 EP
PUNT +0.15 EP
  • Kansas City Chiefs would take over around their own 11, worth +0.15 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model