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Baltimore Ravens

HC John Harbaugh
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Detroit Lions

HC Dan Campbell
Sunday 2021-09-26 · 13:00 Ford Field, Detroit US 🏟 Dome Spread -7.5 O/U 51.0

Win Probability

BAL
70.2%
DET
29.8%
🏟 Dome

Confidence: <strong>strong edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • DET defense: +0.319 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (32nd in the league)
  • BAL offense: +0.142 EPA/play over its last 8 games (9th in the league)
  • Jared Goff (DET): -0.075 EPA/dropback in prior starts
  • BAL defense: +0.136 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (25th in the league)
  • Indoors — weather neutralised

Predicted Final Score

BAL 26
–
DET 19
Projected margin: BAL by 7 Projected total: 45

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 3

BAL

Ronnie Stanley T Out Ankle
Derek Wolfe DE Out Back
Chris Board LB Questionable Other
Pernell McPhee LB Questionable Shoulder
DeShon Elliott S Questionable Concussion
Daelin Hayes LB Questionable Knee
Lamar Jackson QB Questionable Illness
Jimmy Smith CB Questionable Ankle
Tavon Young CB Questionable Knee
Marquise Brown WR Questionable Ankle

DET

Jamie Collins LB Out Not injury related - personal matter
Trey Flowers LB Questionable Shoulder
Michael Brockers DE Questionable Shoulder
Romeo Okwara LB Questionable Shoulder
Julian Okwara LB Questionable Neck
Kalif Raymond WR Questionable Thigh
Kevin Strong DE Questionable Concussion
D'Andre Swift RB Questionable Groin

Pulled fresh for 2021 week 3 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

BAL 19
–
DET 17

Prediction missed by 5 pts on margin, 9 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q2 10:10 FG BAL (10:10) 9-J.Tucker 39 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-N.Moore, Holder-4-S.Koch. BAL 3 – DET 0
  • Q2 03:21 TD BAL (3:21) (Shotgun) 8-L.Jackson pass deep left to 13-D.Duvernay for 19 yards, TOUCHDOWN. BAL 9 – DET 0
  • Q3 12:21 FG BAL (12:21) 9-J.Tucker 50 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-N.Moore, Holder-4-S.Koch. BAL 13 – DET 0
  • Q3 05:25 TD DET (5:25) (Shotgun) 32-D.Swift up the middle for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. BAL 13 – DET 6
  • Q3 00:46 FG BAL (:46) 9-J.Tucker 32 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-N.Moore, Holder-4-S.Koch. BAL 16 – DET 7
  • Q4 08:18 TD DET (8:18) 71-L.Stenberg reported in as eligible. 30-J.Williams left tackle to BAL 1 for no gain (6-P.Queen). DET-77-F.Ragnow was injured during the play. Detroit challenged the short of the goal line ruling, and the play was REVERSED. 71-L.Stenberg and 71-L.Stenberg reported in as eligible. 30-J.Williams left tackle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. DET-77-F.Ragnow was injured during the play. BAL 16 – DET 13
  • Q4 01:08 FG DET (1:08) 5-R.Santoso 35 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-S.Daly, Holder-3-J.Fox. BAL 16 – DET 17
  • Q4 00:03 FG BAL (:03) 9-J.Tucker 66 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-N.Moore, Holder-4-S.Koch. BAL 19 – DET 17

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 DET 4th & 9 at the 52
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 36% p(FG) 30%

    (13:05) 3-J.Fox punts 48 yards to BAL 4, Center-47-S.Daly, downed by DET-18-K.Hodge.

  • Q1 BAL 4th & 5 at the 91
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.55 EP
    p(convert) 56%

    (10:59) 4-S.Koch punts 54 yards to DET 37, Center-46-N.Moore. 11-K.Raymond to DET 48 for 11 yards (40-M.Harrison).

  • Q1 DET 4th & 18 at the 60
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 27%

    (9:24) 3-J.Fox punts 25 yards to BAL 35, Center-47-S.Daly, out of bounds.

  • Q1 BAL 4th & 3 at the 31
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.72 EP
    p(convert) 56% p(FG) 78%

    (5:57) 9-J.Tucker 49 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-46-N.Moore, Holder-4-S.Koch.

  • Q1 DET 4th & 11 at the 48
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 32% p(FG) 39%

    (2:35) 3-J.Fox punts 38 yards to BAL 10, Center-47-S.Daly, fair catch by 13-D.Duvernay.

  • Q2 BAL 4th & 7 at the 56
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.31 EP
    p(convert) 45%

    (14:27) 4-S.Koch punts 48 yards to DET 8, Center-46-N.Moore, fair catch by 11-K.Raymond.

  • Q2 DET 4th & 11 at the 93
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 38%

    (12:36) 3-J.Fox punts 57 yards to BAL 36, Center-47-S.Daly. 13-D.Duvernay to BAL 49 for 13 yards (45-J.Cabinda). PENALTY on DET, Illegal Formation, 5 yards, enforced at BAL 49.

  • Q2 BAL 4th & 6 at the 21
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 43% p(FG) 91%

    (10:10) 9-J.Tucker 39 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-N.Moore, Holder-4-S.Koch.

  • Q2 DET 4th & 5 at the 70
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 48%

    (1:57) 3-J.Fox punts 46 yards to BAL 24, Center-47-S.Daly, fair catch by 13-D.Duvernay.

  • Q2 BAL 4th & 7 at the 44
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.38 EP
    p(convert) 44% p(FG) 49%

    (:34) 4-S.Koch punts 35 yards to DET 9, Center-46-N.Moore, fair catch by 11-K.Raymond.

  • Q3 BAL 4th & 10 at the 32
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 36% p(FG) 76%

    (12:21) 9-J.Tucker 50 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-N.Moore, Holder-4-S.Koch.

  • Q3 BAL 4th & 5 at the 14
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.49 EP
    p(convert) 46% p(FG) 95%

    (:46) 9-J.Tucker 32 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-N.Moore, Holder-4-S.Koch.

  • Q4 DET 4th & 13 at the 17 late-game
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 26% p(FG) 94%

    (1:08) 5-R.Santoso 35 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-S.Daly, Holder-3-J.Fox.

  • Q4 BAL 4th & 19 at the 84 late-game
    Chose GO Model wanted PUNT instead — cost +0.78 EP
    p(convert) 33%

    (:26) (Shotgun) 8-L.Jackson pass deep left to 14-S.Watkins to DET 48 for 36 yards (25-W.Harris).