Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Baltimore Ravens 4th & 19 at the 84

Baltimore Ravens 16 – Detroit Lions 17

(:26) (Shotgun) 8-L.Jackson pass deep left to 14-S.Watkins to DET 48 for 36 yards (25-W.Harris).

The Three Options

GO -1.20 EP

What Happened

33% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +0.31 EP
67% chance to fail: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 84, worth -1.94 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (101 yards).

Chose GO Model wanted PUNT instead — cost +0.78 EP