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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Detroit Lions 4th & 5 at the 70

Detroit Lions 0 – Baltimore Ravens 10

What Actually Happened

(1:57) 3-J.Fox punts 46 yards to BAL 24, Center-47-S.Daly, fair catch by 13-D.Duvernay.

The Three Options

GO -1.18 EP
  • 48% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.67 EP
  • 52% chance to fail: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 70, worth -3.78 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (87 yards).

PUNT -1.13 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Baltimore Ravens would take over around their own 28, worth -1.13 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model