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Detroit Lions

HC Dan Campbell
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GB Home

Green Bay Packers

HC Matt LaFleur
Monday 2021-09-20 · 20:15 Lambeau Field, Green Bay US 🌧 Rain Spread 11.5 O/U 49.5

Win Probability

DET
80.5%
GB
19.5%
🌧 Rain

Confidence: <strong>strong edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • GB offense: -0.390 EPA/play over its last 8 games (32nd in the league)
  • GB defense: +0.302 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (29th in the league)
  • QB edge to DET: Aaron Rodgers (GB) -0.550 vs Jared Goff (DET) -0.110 EPA/dropback
  • DET defense: +0.312 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (30th in the league)
  • Aaron Rodgers (GB) has only 1 prior start in the data — thin sample

Predicted Final Score

DET 27
–
GB 15
Projected margin: DET by 12 Projected total: 42

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 2

DET

Kevin Strong DE Out Concussion
Tyrell Williams WR Out Concussion
D'Andre Swift RB Questionable Groin
Michael Brockers DE Questionable Shoulder
Trey Flowers LB Questionable Shoulder
Kalif Raymond WR Questionable Thigh

GB

Vernon Scott S Out Hamstring
Josiah Deguara TE Doubtful Concussion
Lucas Patrick G Questionable Concussion
Darnell Savage S Questionable Shoulder

Pulled fresh for 2021 week 2 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

DET 17
–
GB 35

Prediction missed by 30 pts on margin, 10 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 10:42 TD DET (10:42) (Shotgun) 16-J.Goff pass short left to 87-Q.Cephus for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN. DET 6 – GB 0
  • Q1 03:49 TD GB (3:49) (Shotgun) 12-Aa.Rodgers pass short middle to 33-A.Jones for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN. DET 7 – GB 6
  • Q2 07:27 TD DET (7:27) (Shotgun) 16-J.Goff pass short left to 88-T.Hockenson for 8 yards, TOUCHDOWN. DET 13 – GB 7
  • Q2 01:57 TD GB (1:57) 12-Aa.Rodgers pass short right to 33-A.Jones for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. DET 14 – GB 13
  • Q2 00:07 FG DET (:07) 4-A.Seibert 43 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-S.Daly, Holder-3-J.Fox. DET 17 – GB 14
  • Q3 10:30 TD GB (10:30) (Shotgun) 12-Aa.Rodgers pass deep middle to 85-R.Tonyan for 22 yards, TOUCHDOWN. DET 17 – GB 20
  • Q3 00:13 TD GB (:13) (Shotgun) 12-Aa.Rodgers pass short left to 33-A.Jones for 11 yards, TOUCHDOWN. DET 17 – GB 27
  • Q4 12:45 TD GB (12:45) (Shotgun) 33-A.Jones left guard for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. DET 17 – GB 34

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q2 GB 4th & 13 at the 85
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 30%

    (12:28) 7-C.Bojorquez punts 46 yards to DET 39, Center-43-H.Bradley, out of bounds.

  • Q2 DET 4th & 9 at the 24
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 34% p(FG) 85%

    (:07) 4-A.Seibert 43 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-S.Daly, Holder-3-J.Fox.

  • Q3 DET 4th & 1 at the 25
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 70% p(FG) 84%

    (5:57) (Shotgun) 16-J.Goff pass incomplete short left to 87-Q.Cephus.

  • Q4 DET 4th & 13 at the 70
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 34%

    (8:29) 3-J.Fox punts 55 yards to GB 15, Center-47-S.Daly, fair catch by 8-Am.Rodgers.

  • Q4 GB 4th & 2 at the 47 late-game
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.53 EP
    p(convert) 55% p(FG) 31%

    (3:15) 7-C.Bojorquez punts 38 yards to DET 9, Center-43-H.Bradley, fair catch by 11-K.Raymond.

  • Q4 DET 4th & 3 at the 32 late-game
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 54% p(FG) 70%

    (1:55) (Shotgun) 16-J.Goff pass incomplete deep left to 17-T.Benson (21-E.Stokes).