4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Detroit Lions 4th & 13 at the 70

Detroit Lions 17 – Green Bay Packers 35

What Actually Happened

(8:29) 3-J.Fox punts 55 yards to GB 15, Center-47-S.Daly, fair catch by 8-Am.Rodgers.

The Three Options

GO -1.96 EP
  • 34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 57, worth +1.74 EP
  • 66% chance to fail: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 70, worth -3.89 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (87 yards).

PUNT -1.38 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Green Bay Packers would take over around their own 28, worth -1.38 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model