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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Green Bay Packers 4th & 2 at the 47

Green Bay Packers 35 – Detroit Lions 17

What Actually Happened

(3:15) 7-C.Bojorquez punts 38 yards to DET 9, Center-43-H.Bradley, fair catch by 11-K.Raymond.

The Three Options

GO -0.66 EP
Model's Pick
  • 55% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 45, worth +0.77 EP
  • 45% chance to fail: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 47, worth -2.44 EP
KICK -1.37 EP
  • 31% chance to make a 64-yard field goal: 3 points, then Detroit Lions takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.11 EP
  • 69% chance to miss: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 49, worth -2.48 EP
PUNT -1.19 EP
What Happened
  • Detroit Lions would take over around their own 13, worth -1.19 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.53 EP