4TH&DATA
EN ES
← Home
CHI Away

Chicago Bears

HC Matt Nagy
@
LA Home

Los Angeles Rams

HC Sean McVay
Sunday 2021-09-12 · 20:20 SoFi Stadium, Inglewood US 🏟 Dome Spread 9.5 O/U 46.0

Win Probability

CHI
33.8%
LA
66.2%
🏟 Dome

Confidence: <strong>clear edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • QB edge to LA: Matthew Stafford (LA) +0.239 vs Andy Dalton (CHI) -0.085 EPA/dropback
  • Indoors — weather neutralised

Predicted Final Score

CHI 23
–
LA 26
Projected margin: LA by 3 Projected total: 49

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 1

CHI

Eddie Goldman DT Doubtful Knee
Deon Bush S Questionable Shoulder
Joel Iyiegbuniwe LB Questionable Shoulder
Eddie Jackson S Questionable Wrist
Khalil Mack LB Questionable Groin
Darnell Mooney WR Questionable Back
Robert Quinn LB Questionable Back
Patrick Scales LS Questionable Ankle
Tashaun Gipson S Questionable Back

LA

Ben Skowronek WR Doubtful Forearm

Pulled fresh for 2021 week 1 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

CHI 14
–
LA 34

Prediction missed by 17 pts on margin, 1 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 10:48 TD LA (10:48) 9-M.Stafford pass deep right to 12-V.Jefferson for 67 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CHI 0 – LA 6
  • Q1 04:44 FG LA (4:44) 8-M.Gay 53 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-M.Orzech, Holder-6-J.Hekker. CHI 0 – LA 10
  • Q2 11:42 FG LA (11:42) 8-M.Gay 22 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-M.Orzech, Holder-6-J.Hekker. CHI 0 – LA 13
  • Q2 00:38 TD CHI (:38) (Shotgun) 32-D.Montgomery up the middle for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CHI 6 – LA 13
  • Q3 14:01 TD LA (14:01) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass deep middle to 10-C.Kupp for 56 yards, TOUCHDOWN. PENALTY on CHI-96-A.Hicks, Roughing the Passer, 15 yards, enforced between downs. CHI 7 – LA 19
  • Q3 04:20 TD CHI (4:20) (Shotgun) 1-J.Fields right end for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CHI 13 – LA 20
  • Q3 01:24 TD LA (1:24) 27-D.Henderson up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. CHI 14 – LA 26
  • Q4 03:22 TD LA (3:22) 9-M.Stafford pass short middle to 2-R.Woods for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Penalty on CHI-44-A.Ogletree, Defensive Holding, declined. CHI 14 – LA 33

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 CHI 4th & 4 at the 41
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 46% p(FG) 56%

    (7:21) (Shotgun) 14-A.Dalton pass incomplete short right to 12-A.Robinson (5-J.Ramsey).

  • Q1 LA 4th & 5 at the 35
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 42% p(FG) 70%

    (4:44) 8-M.Gay 53 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-M.Orzech, Holder-6-J.Hekker.

  • Q1 CHI 4th & 4 at the 38
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 46% p(FG) 64%

    (1:21) (Shotgun) 14-A.Dalton sacked at LA 45 for -7 yards (58-J.Hollins). FUMBLES (58-J.Hollins), RECOVERED by LA-41-K.Young at LA 42.

  • Q2 LA 4th & 1 at the 32
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 68% p(FG) 76%

    (13:56) 9-M.Stafford pass short right to 12-V.Jefferson pushed ob at CHI 19 for 13 yards (33-Ja.Johnson).

  • Q2 LA 4th & 4 at the 4
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.63 EP
    p(convert) 42% p(FG) 98%

    (11:42) 8-M.Gay 22 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-M.Orzech, Holder-6-J.Hekker.

  • Q2 CHI 4th & 2 at the 47
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.12 EP
    p(convert) 59% p(FG) 41%

    (7:25) 16-P.O'Donnell punts 36 yards to LA 11, Center-48-P.Scales, fair catch by 10-C.Kupp.

  • Q2 LA 4th & 13 at the 92
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 34%

    (4:53) 6-J.Hekker punts 50 yards to CHI 42, Center-42-M.Orzech. 15-N.Webster to CHI 45 for 3 yards (33-N.Scott).

  • Q4 CHI 4th & 15 at the 30
    Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.90 EP
    p(convert) 25% p(FG) 80%

    (10:07) (Shotgun) 14-A.Dalton pass incomplete short right to 11-D.Mooney (31-R.Rochell).

  • Q4 CHI 4th & 10 at the 64 late-game
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 34%

    (2:23) (Shotgun) 14-A.Dalton sacked at CHI 27 for -9 yards (99-A.Donald).