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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Chicago Bears 4th & 4 at the 41

Chicago Bears 0 – Los Angeles Rams 7

What Actually Happened

(7:21) (Shotgun) 14-A.Dalton pass incomplete short right to 12-A.Robinson (5-J.Ramsey).

The Three Options

GO +0.18 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 46% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 37, worth +3.18 EP
  • 54% chance to fail: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 41, worth -2.41 EP
KICK -0.42 EP
  • 56% chance to make a 58-yard field goal: 3 points, then Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.58 EP
  • 44% chance to miss: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 49, worth -3.01 EP
PUNT -0.62 EP
  • Los Angeles Rams would take over around their own 12, worth -0.62 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model