4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Los Angeles Rams 4th & 13 at the 92

Los Angeles Rams 13 – Chicago Bears 0

What Actually Happened

(4:53) 6-J.Hekker punts 50 yards to CHI 42, Center-42-M.Orzech. 15-N.Webster to CHI 45 for 3 yards (33-N.Scott).

The Three Options

GO -3.15 EP
  • 34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 79, worth +0.76 EP
  • 66% chance to fail: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 92, worth -5.14 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (109 yards).

PUNT -2.51 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Chicago Bears would take over around their own 50, worth -2.51 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model