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Tennessee Titans

HC Mike Vrabel
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Indianapolis Colts

HC Frank Reich
Sunday 2019-12-01 · 13:00 Lucas Oil Stadium, Indianapolis US 🏟 Dome Spread -1.0 O/U 41.5

Win Probability

TEN
40.3%
IND
59.7%
🏟 Dome

Confidence: <strong>slight edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • IND defense: -0.063 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (10th in the league)
  • Indoors — weather neutralised
  • Ryan Tannehill (TEN): -0.035 EPA/dropback in prior starts
  • IND on 3 more days rest than TEN

Predicted Final Score

TEN 22
–
IND 24
Projected margin: IND by 2 Projected total: 46

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 13

TEN

LeShaun Sims CB Out Ankle

IND

T.Y. Hilton WR Out Calf
Marlon Mack RB Out Hand
Mo Alie-Cox TE Questionable Thumb
Khari Willis S Questionable Concussion
Rock Ya-Sin CB Questionable Ankle
Parris Campbell WR Questionable Hand

Pulled fresh for 2019 week 13 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

TEN 31
–
IND 17

Prediction missed by 16 pts on margin, 2 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 11:10 TD IND (11:10) 7-J.Brissett pass deep left to 84-J.Doyle for 21 yards, TOUCHDOWN. TEN 0 – IND 6
  • Q1 05:14 TD TEN (5:14) (Shotgun) 17-R.Tannehill pass short left to 10-A.Humphries for 13 yards, TOUCHDOWN. The Replay Official reviewed the runner broke the plane ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands. TEN 6 – IND 7
  • Q2 06:11 FG IND (6:11) 4-A.Vinatieri 28 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-L.Rhodes, Holder-8-R.Sanchez. TEN 7 – IND 10
  • Q3 10:25 TD IND (10:25) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 21-N.Hines left guard for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. TEN 7 – IND 16
  • Q3 05:59 TD TEN (5:59) (No Huddle) 22-D.Henry left end for 13 yards, TOUCHDOWN. TEN 13 – IND 17
  • Q3 04:30 FG TEN (4:30) 4-R.Succop 31 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-B.Brinkley, Holder-6-B.Kern. TEN 17 – IND 17
  • Q4 05:12 TD TEN (5:12) 4-A.Vinatieri 46 yard field goal is BLOCKED (29-D.Cruikshank), Center-46-L.Rhodes, Holder-8-R.Sanchez, RECOVERED by TEN-23-T.Smith at TEN 37. 23-T.Smith for 63 yards, TOUCHDOWN. TEN 23 – IND 17
  • Q4 03:11 TD TEN (3:11) (Shotgun) 17-R.Tannehill pass deep left to 14-K.Raymond for 40 yards, TOUCHDOWN. TEN 30 – IND 17

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 IND 4th & 6 at the 37
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 38% p(FG) 65%

    (2:16) 4-A.Vinatieri 55 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-46-L.Rhodes, Holder-8-R.Sanchez.

  • Q1 IND 4th & 12 at the 35
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 28% p(FG) 69%

    (:52) 4-A.Vinatieri 53 yard field goal is BLOCKED (94-A.Johnson), Center-46-L.Rhodes, Holder-8-R.Sanchez.

  • Q2 TEN 4th & 12 at the 41
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 28% p(FG) 55%

    (12:36) 6-B.Kern punts 31 yards to IND 10, Center-48-B.Brinkley, fair catch by 21-N.Hines.

  • Q2 IND 4th & 10 at the 10
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 28% p(FG) 97%

    (6:11) 4-A.Vinatieri 28 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-L.Rhodes, Holder-8-R.Sanchez.

  • Q2 TEN 4th & 18 at the 83
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 27%

    (4:05) 6-B.Kern punts 65 yards to IND 18, Center-48-B.Brinkley. 21-N.Hines pushed ob at IND 41 for 23 yards (53-D.Bates).

  • Q2 IND 4th & 12 at the 61
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 31%

    (2:00) 8-R.Sanchez punts 47 yards to TEN 14, Center-46-L.Rhodes. 10-A.Humphries pushed ob at TEN 20 for 6 yards (42-R.Milligan). PENALTY on TEN-29-D.Cruikshank, Illegal Block Above the Waist, 8 yards, enforced at TEN 16.

  • Q2 TEN 4th & 12 at the 54
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 30%

    (:26) 6-B.Kern punts 48 yards to IND 6, Center-48-B.Brinkley, downed by TEN-46-J.Kalu.

  • Q3 TEN 4th & 1 at the 13
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 65% p(FG) 96%

    (5:59) (No Huddle) 22-D.Henry left end for 13 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

  • Q3 TEN 4th & 8 at the 12
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 31% p(FG) 96%

    (4:30) 4-R.Succop 31 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-B.Brinkley, Holder-6-B.Kern.

  • Q3 IND 4th & 7 at the 72
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 40%

    (3:06) 8-R.Sanchez punts 50 yards to TEN 22, Center-46-L.Rhodes. 10-A.Humphries to TEN 28 for 6 yards (30-G.Odum).

  • Q3 TEN 4th & 4 at the 66
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 48%

    (:54) 6-B.Kern punts 63 yards to IND 3, Center-48-B.Brinkley. 21-N.Hines to IND 12 for 9 yards (44-K.Correa, 37-A.Hooker).

  • Q4 IND 4th & 10 at the 71
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 34%

    (13:40) 8-R.Sanchez punts 51 yards to TEN 20, Center-46-L.Rhodes, fair catch by 14-K.Raymond.

  • Q4 TEN 4th & 7 at the 47
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 37% p(FG) 40%

    (11:08) 6-B.Kern punts 37 yards to IND 10, Center-48-B.Brinkley, fair catch by 21-N.Hines.

  • Q4 IND 4th & 10 at the 28
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 30% p(FG) 82%

    (5:12) 4-A.Vinatieri 46 yard field goal is BLOCKED (29-D.Cruikshank), Center-46-L.Rhodes, Holder-8-R.Sanchez, RECOVERED by TEN-23-T.Smith at TEN 37. 23-T.Smith for 63 yards, TOUCHDOWN.