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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Indianapolis Colts 4th & 7 at the 72

Indianapolis Colts 17 – Tennessee Titans 17

What Actually Happened

(3:06) 8-R.Sanchez punts 50 yards to TEN 22, Center-46-L.Rhodes. 10-A.Humphries to TEN 28 for 6 yards (30-G.Odum).

The Three Options

GO -1.82 EP
  • 40% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.77 EP
  • 60% chance to fail: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 72, worth -4.24 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (89 yards).

PUNT -1.22 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Tennessee Titans would take over around their own 30, worth -1.22 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model