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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Indianapolis Colts 4th & 12 at the 35

Indianapolis Colts 7 – Tennessee Titans 7

What Actually Happened

(:52) 4-A.Vinatieri 53 yard field goal is BLOCKED (94-A.Johnson), Center-46-L.Rhodes, Holder-8-R.Sanchez.

The Three Options

GO +0.28 EP
  • 28% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 23, worth +4.55 EP
  • 72% chance to fail: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 35, worth -1.36 EP
KICK +0.94 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 69% chance to make a 52-yard field goal: 3 points, then Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.27 EP
  • 31% chance to miss: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 45, worth -2.05 EP
PUNT +0.18 EP
  • Tennessee Titans would take over around their own 11, worth +0.18 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model