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Arizona Cardinals

HC Kliff Kingsbury
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San Francisco 49ers

HC Kyle Shanahan
Sunday 2019-11-17 · 16:05 Levi's Stadium, Santa Clara US ☀️ Clear Spread 10.0 O/U 44.0

Win Probability

ARI
28.2%
SF
71.8%
☀️ Clear

Confidence: <strong>strong edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • SF defense: -0.317 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (2nd in the league)
  • ARI offense: +0.051 EPA/play over its last 8 games (10th in the league)
  • ARI defense: +0.151 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (30th in the league)
  • SF offense: +0.048 EPA/play over its last 8 games (11th in the league)

Predicted Final Score

ARI 19
–
SF 28
Projected margin: SF by 9 Projected total: 47

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 11

ARI

Jonathan Bullard DE Out Foot
Chase Edmonds RB Out Hamstring
Terrell Suggs LB Questionable Hamstring
Tramaine Brock CB Questionable Hamstring
Zach Kerr DE Questionable Knee
Justin Murray T Questionable Knee

SF

D.J. Jones DT Out Groin
Joe Staley T Out Finger
Azeez Al-Shaair LB Out Concussion
Matt Breida RB Doubtful Ankle
Robbie Gould K Doubtful right Quadricep
George Kittle TE Doubtful Knee
Emmanuel Sanders WR Questionable Ribs
Raheem Mostert RB Questionable Knee
Dante Pettis WR Questionable Back
Ahkello Witherspoon CB Questionable Foot

Pulled fresh for 2019 week 11 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

ARI 26
–
SF 36

Prediction missed by 1 pts on margin, 15 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 10:35 FG ARI (10:35) 5-Z.Gonzalez 26 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-A.Brewer, Holder-4-A.Lee. ARI 3 – SF 0
  • Q1 04:07 TD ARI (4:07) (Shotgun) 1-K.Murray pass short left to 11-L.Fitzgerald for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN. ARI 9 – SF 0
  • Q2 09:07 TD ARI (9:07) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 1-K.Murray pass short left to 12-P.Cooper for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Caught at SF 7. 7-yac ARI 15 – SF 0
  • Q2 07:55 TD SF (7:55) (Shotgun) 10-J.Garoppolo pass short left to 82-R.Dwelley for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN. ARI 16 – SF 6
  • Q2 00:03 FG SF (:03) 5-C.McLaughlin 43 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-86-K.Nelson, Holder-6-M.Wishnowsky. ARI 16 – SF 10
  • Q3 11:11 TD SF (11:11) (Shotgun) 10-J.Garoppolo pass short right to 82-R.Dwelley for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Caught at ARI 2. 2-yac ARI 16 – SF 16
  • Q3 02:58 FG ARI (2:58) 5-Z.Gonzalez 43 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-A.Brewer, Holder-4-A.Lee. ARI 19 – SF 17
  • Q4 12:17 TD SF (12:17) (Shotgun) 10-J.Garoppolo pass short middle to 84-K.Bourne for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. ARI 19 – SF 23
  • Q4 06:35 TD ARI (6:35) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 1-K.Murray left end for 22 yards, TOUCHDOWN. ARI 25 – SF 23
  • Q4 00:37 TD SF (:37) (Shotgun) 10-J.Garoppolo pass short middle to 30-J.Wilson for 25 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Caught at ARI 20. 20-yac ARI 26 – SF 29
  • Q4 00:02 TD SF (:02) (Shotgun) 1-K.Murray pass short middle to 11-L.Fitzgerald to ARI 26 for 4 yards (32-D.Reed Jr.). FUMBLES (32-D.Reed Jr.), touched at ARI 26, RECOVERED by SF-32-D.Reed Jr. at ARI 5. 32-D.Reed Jr. for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Ball was batted backwards by ARI #64 J.Sweezy and then recovered by SF #32 D.Reed who scored the TD. #11 L.Fitzgerald credited with a 4-yard reception and a fumble. ARI 26 – SF 36

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 ARI 4th & 8 at the 8
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 29% p(FG) 97%

    (10:35) 5-Z.Gonzalez 26 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-A.Brewer, Holder-4-A.Lee.

  • Q1 SF 4th & 5 at the 70
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 49%

    (9:19) 6-M.Wishnowsky punts 51 yards to ARI 19, Center-86-K.Nelson, fair catch by 12-P.Cooper.

  • Q1 SF 4th & 5 at the 40
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 45% p(FG) 57%

    (2:43) (Shotgun) 10-J.Garoppolo pass incomplete short right to 31-R.Mostert (43-H.Reddick).

  • Q1 ARI 4th & 11 at the 60
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 30%

    (1:20) 4-A.Lee punts 45 yards to SF 15, Center-46-A.Brewer, fair catch by 13-R.James Jr..

  • Q2 SF 4th & 18 at the 93
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 31%

    (14:14) 6-M.Wishnowsky punts 50 yards to ARI 43, Center-86-K.Nelson, fair catch by 12-P.Cooper.

  • Q2 ARI 4th & 1 at the 34
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 65% p(FG) 71%

    (10:55) 1-K.Murray pass short left to 81-D.Daniels to SF 30 for 4 yards (29-J.Tartt). Caught at SF 30. 0-yac

  • Q2 ARI 4th & 7 at the 61
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 37%

    (4:54) 4-A.Lee punts 61 yards to end zone, Center-46-A.Brewer, Touchback.

  • Q2 SF 4th & 19 at the 25
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 23% p(FG) 86%

    (:03) 5-C.McLaughlin 43 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-86-K.Nelson, Holder-6-M.Wishnowsky.

  • Q3 ARI 4th & 14 at the 79
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 28%

    (9:45) 4-A.Lee punts 44 yards to SF 35, Center-46-A.Brewer. 13-R.James Jr. pushed ob at SF 37 for 2 yards (81-D.Daniels).

  • Q3 ARI 4th & 10 at the 25
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 27% p(FG) 86%

    (2:58) 5-Z.Gonzalez 43 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-A.Brewer, Holder-4-A.Lee.

  • Q4 ARI 4th & 16 at the 81 late-game
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 27%

    (2:22) 4-A.Lee punts 52 yards to SF 29, Center-46-A.Brewer. 13-R.James Jr. to SF 35 for 6 yards (28-C.Washington).

  • Q4 SF 4th & 1 at the 21 late-game
    Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +1.91 EP
    p(convert) 69% p(FG) 90%

    (:11) (Run formation) 26-T.Coleman right guard to ARI 22 for -1 yards (58-J.Hicks, 43-H.Reddick).