Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 San Francisco 49ers 4th & 18 at the 93

San Francisco 49ers 0 – Arizona Cardinals 9

(14:14) 6-M.Wishnowsky punts 50 yards to ARI 43, Center-86-K.Nelson, fair catch by 12-P.Cooper.

The Three Options

GO -3.04 EP

31% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 75, worth +2.05 EP
69% chance to fail: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 93, worth -5.32 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (110 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model