Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 San Francisco 49ers 4th & 5 at the 70

San Francisco 49ers 0 – Arizona Cardinals 3

(9:19) 6-M.Wishnowsky punts 51 yards to ARI 19, Center-86-K.Nelson, fair catch by 12-P.Cooper.

The Three Options

GO -0.85 EP

49% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +2.16 EP
51% chance to fail: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 70, worth -3.71 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (87 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model