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Baltimore Ravens

HC John Harbaugh
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Cincinnati Bengals

HC Zac Taylor
Sunday 2019-11-10 · 13:00 Paul Brown Stadium, Cincinnati US ☀️ Clear Spread -10.5 O/U 44.0

Win Probability

BAL
78.1%
CIN
21.9%
☀️ Clear

Confidence: <strong>strong edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • QB edge to BAL: Ryan Finley (CIN) -0.537 vs Lamar Jackson (BAL) +0.131 EPA/dropback (CIN starting Ryan Finley in place of Andy Dalton)
  • BAL offense: +0.160 EPA/play over its last 8 games (1st in the league)
  • CIN offense: -0.101 EPA/play over its last 8 games (26th in the league)
  • CIN defense: +0.107 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (27th in the league)
  • CIN on 7 more days rest than BAL

Predicted Final Score

BAL 27
–
CIN 17
Projected margin: BAL by 10 Projected total: 44

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 10

BAL

Earl Thomas S Questionable Not Injury Related
Lamar Jackson QB Questionable Illness
Ronnie Stanley T Questionable Knee
Marshal Yanda G Questionable Illness
Marquise Brown WR Questionable Ankle
Daylon Mack DT Questionable Knee
Chris Moore WR Questionable Thumb

CIN

A.J. Green WR Out Ankle
Dre Kirkpatrick CB Out Knee
Alex Redmond G Out Knee
Cordy Glenn T Questionable Concussion

Pulled fresh for 2019 week 10 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

BAL 49
–
CIN 13

Prediction missed by 26 pts on margin, 18 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 12:22 TD BAL (12:22) 8-L.Jackson pass short right to 89-M.Andrews for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. BAL 6 – CIN 0
  • Q1 03:58 TD BAL (3:58) 21-M.Ingram II right tackle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. BAL 13 – CIN 0
  • Q2 13:39 FG CIN (13:39) 4-R.Bullock 42 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Harris, Holder-10-K.Huber. BAL 14 – CIN 3
  • Q2 09:32 TD BAL (9:32) (Shotgun) 8-L.Jackson pass deep middle to 89-M.Andrews for 17 yards, TOUCHDOWN. BAL 20 – CIN 3
  • Q2 03:55 TD BAL (3:55) 5-R.Finley pass short right intended for 12-A.Erickson INTERCEPTED by 24-M.Peters at BAL 11. 24-M.Peters for 89 yards, TOUCHDOWN. BAL 27 – CIN 3
  • Q2 00:30 TD CIN (:30) (Shotgun) 5-R.Finley pass short right to 85-T.Eifert for 6 yards, TOUCHDOWN. BAL 28 – CIN 9
  • Q3 08:18 TD BAL (8:18) (Shotgun) 8-L.Jackson left end for 47 yards, TOUCHDOWN. BAL 34 – CIN 10
  • Q3 05:18 TD BAL (5:18) (Shotgun) 8-L.Jackson pass deep right to 15-M.Brown for 20 yards, TOUCHDOWN [94-S.Hubbard]. BAL 41 – CIN 10
  • Q3 02:24 TD BAL (2:24) (Shotgun) 5-R.Finley sacked at CIN 35 for -8 yards (42-P.Ricard). FUMBLES (42-P.Ricard) [42-P.Ricard], RECOVERED by BAL-54-T.Bowser at CIN 33. 54-T.Bowser for 33 yards, TOUCHDOWN. BAL 48 – CIN 10
  • Q4 02:34 FG CIN (2:34) 4-R.Bullock 39 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Harris, Holder-10-K.Huber. BAL 49 – CIN 13

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 CIN 4th & 6 at the 70
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 41%

    (11:29) (Punt formation) 10-K.Huber punts 53 yards to BAL 17, Center-46-C.Harris. 16-D.Thomas to BAL 25 for 8 yards (87-C.Uzomah; 50-Jo.Evans).

  • Q1 BAL 4th & 3 at the 44
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 56% p(FG) 39%

    (6:40) (Shotgun) 8-L.Jackson pass short right to 89-M.Andrews to CIN 40 for 4 yards (36-S.Williams).

  • Q2 CIN 4th & 8 at the 24
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 31% p(FG) 85%

    (13:39) 4-R.Bullock 42 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Harris, Holder-10-K.Huber.

  • Q2 CIN 4th & 1 at the 51
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 68% p(FG) 23%

    (6:40) (Shotgun) 28-J.Mixon up the middle to BAL 48 for 3 yards (22-J.Smith).

  • Q3 CIN 4th & 8 at the 34
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 32% p(FG) 66%

    (9:43) (Shotgun) 5-R.Finley pass short middle to 25-G.Bernard to BAL 34 for no gain (36-C.Clark) [99-M.Judon]. FUMBLES (36-C.Clark), RECOVERED by BAL-29-E.Thomas III at BAL 30. 29-E.Thomas III to BAL 36 for 6 yards (66-T.Hopkins; 67-J.Miller).

  • Q3 CIN 4th & 2 at the 67
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 59%

    (6:47) (Shotgun) 5-R.Finley pass incomplete short right to 12-A.Erickson.

  • Q4 CIN 4th & 6 at the 20
    Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.33 EP
    p(convert) 35% p(FG) 90%

    (13:14) (Shotgun) 5-R.Finley pass incomplete short left to 17-S.Morgan (22-J.Smith) [39-B.Carr].

  • Q4 CIN 4th & 14 at the 22 late-game
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 23% p(FG) 88%

    (2:34) 4-R.Bullock 39 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Harris, Holder-10-K.Huber.

  • Q4 BAL 4th & 9 at the 74 late-game
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 41%

    (1:14) (Punt formation) 4-S.Koch punts 34 yards to CIN 40, Center-46-M.Cox, out of bounds.