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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Cincinnati Bengals 4th & 6 at the 20

Cincinnati Bengals 10 – Baltimore Ravens 49

What Actually Happened

(13:14) (Shotgun) 5-R.Finley pass incomplete short left to 17-S.Morgan (22-J.Smith) [39-B.Carr].

The Three Options

GO +1.24 EP
What Happened
  • 35% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 14, worth +5.08 EP
  • 65% chance to fail: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 20, worth -0.81 EP
KICK +1.57 EP
Model's Pick
  • 90% chance to make a 37-yard field goal: 3 points, then Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.91 EP
  • 10% chance to miss: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 30, worth -1.41 EP
PUNT -0.18 EP
  • Baltimore Ravens would take over around their own 11, worth -0.18 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.33 EP