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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Cincinnati Bengals 4th & 1 at the 51

Cincinnati Bengals 3 – Baltimore Ravens 21

What Actually Happened

(6:40) (Shotgun) 28-J.Mixon up the middle to BAL 48 for 3 yards (22-J.Smith).

The Three Options

GO +1.09 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 68% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 50, worth +2.82 EP
  • 32% chance to fail: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 51, worth -2.56 EP
KICK -1.53 EP
  • 23% chance to make a 68-yard field goal: 3 points, then Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.84 EP
  • 77% chance to miss: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 49, worth -2.55 EP
PUNT -0.59 EP
  • Baltimore Ravens would take over around their own 14, worth -0.59 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model