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Dallas Cowboys

HC Jason Garrett
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New York Jets

HC Adam Gase
Sunday 2019-10-13 · 16:25 MetLife Stadium, East Rutherford US ☀️ Clear Spread -7.0 O/U 43.5

Win Probability

DAL
73.7%
NYJ
26.3%
☀️ Clear

Confidence: <strong>strong edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • NYJ offense: -0.258 EPA/play over its last 8 games (31st in the league)
  • DAL offense: +0.169 EPA/play over its last 8 games (2nd in the league)
  • QB edge to DAL: Sam Darnold (NYJ) -0.046 vs Dak Prescott (DAL) +0.191 EPA/dropback (NYJ starting Sam Darnold in place of Luke Falk)
  • NYJ defense: +0.039 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (21st in the league)
  • DAL defense: +0.056 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (24th in the league)

Predicted Final Score

DAL 28
–
NYJ 19
Projected margin: DAL by 9 Projected total: 47

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 6

DAL

Randall Cobb WR Questionable Hip
La'el Collins T Questionable Knee
Tyron Smith T Questionable Ankle

NYJ

Henry Anderson DE Doubtful Shoulder
Trenton Cannon RB Doubtful Foot
C.J. Mosley LB Doubtful Groin
Kelechi Osemele G Doubtful Shoulder
Josh Bellamy WR Questionable Shoulder
Nate Hairston CB Questionable Knee
Jordan Jenkins LB Questionable Calf
Demaryius Thomas WR Questionable Hamstring

Pulled fresh for 2019 week 6 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

DAL 22
–
NYJ 24

Prediction missed by 11 pts on margin, 1 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 03:30 TD NYJ (3:30) 26-L.Bell right tackle for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. DAL 0 – NYJ 6
  • Q2 15:00 FG DAL (15:00) 2-B.Maher 50 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-91-L.Ladouceur, Holder-6-C.Jones. DAL 3 – NYJ 7
  • Q2 03:46 TD NYJ (3:46) 14-S.Darnold pass deep right to 11-Ro.Anderson for 92 yards, TOUCHDOWN. DAL 3 – NYJ 13
  • Q2 00:31 TD NYJ (:31) (Shotgun) 14-S.Darnold pass short middle to 84-R.Griffin for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN. DAL 3 – NYJ 20
  • Q2 00:05 FG DAL (:05) 2-B.Maher 62 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-91-L.Ladouceur, Holder-6-C.Jones. DAL 6 – NYJ 21
  • Q3 07:54 FG DAL (7:54) 2-B.Maher 32 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-91-L.Ladouceur, Holder-6-C.Jones. DAL 9 – NYJ 21
  • Q4 06:36 TD DAL (6:36) (Shotgun) 21-E.Elliott left tackle for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN. DAL 15 – NYJ 21
  • Q4 03:27 FG NYJ (3:27) 9-S.Ficken 38 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-T.Hennessy, Holder-4-L.Edwards. DAL 16 – NYJ 24
  • Q4 00:47 TD DAL (:47) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott left tackle for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN. DAL 22 – NYJ 24

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 NYJ 4th & 9 at the 64
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 32%

    (12:49) 4-L.Edwards punts 48 yards to DAL 16, Center-42-T.Hennessy. 10-T.Austin pushed ob at DAL 23 for 7 yards (44-H.Langi). PENALTY on NYJ-47-A.McClellan, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at DAL 23.

  • Q1 DAL 4th & 5 at the 62
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 49%

    (11:29) 6-C.Jones punts 55 yards to NYJ 7, Center-91-L.Ladouceur. 10-B.Berrios to NYJ 17 for 10 yards (29-C.Goodwin).

  • Q2 DAL 4th & 4 at the 32
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.53 EP
    p(convert) 48% p(FG) 72%

    (15:00) 2-B.Maher 50 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-91-L.Ladouceur, Holder-6-C.Jones.

  • Q2 NYJ 4th & 15 at the 77
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 26%

    (13:46) 4-L.Edwards punts 48 yards to DAL 29, Center-42-T.Hennessy, out of bounds.

  • Q2 DAL 4th & 7 at the 55
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 42%

    (11:22) 6-C.Jones punts 38 yards to NYJ 17, Center-91-L.Ladouceur, fair catch by 10-B.Berrios.

  • Q2 NYJ 4th & 8 at the 81
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 36%

    (8:43) 4-L.Edwards punts 44 yards to DAL 37, Center-42-T.Hennessy. 10-T.Austin to DAL 38 for 1 yard (46-N.Hewitt).

  • Q2 DAL 4th & 2 at the 7
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 57% p(FG) 97%

    (3:51) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott left end to NYJ 8 for -1 yards (95-Q.Williams; 33-J.Adams).

  • Q2 DAL 4th & 2 at the 67
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.89 EP
    p(convert) 64%

    (2:14) 6-C.Jones punts 44 yards to NYJ 23, Center-91-L.Ladouceur. 10-B.Berrios to NYJ 35 for 12 yards (53-J.March-Lillard).

  • Q3 DAL 4th & 14 at the 14
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 27% p(FG) 95%

    (7:54) 2-B.Maher 32 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-91-L.Ladouceur, Holder-6-C.Jones.

  • Q4 DAL 4th & 9 at the 22
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 34% p(FG) 88%

    (14:13) 2-B.Maher 40 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-91-L.Ladouceur, Holder-6-C.Jones.

  • Q4 NYJ 4th & 13 at the 57
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 26%

    (11:29) 4-L.Edwards punts 41 yards to DAL 16, Center-42-T.Hennessy, downed by NYJ-23-A.Maulet.

  • Q4 NYJ 4th & 4 at the 20 late-game
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 39% p(FG) 90%

    (3:27) 9-S.Ficken 38 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-T.Hennessy, Holder-4-L.Edwards.