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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Dallas Cowboys 4th & 9 at the 22

Dallas Cowboys 9 – New York Jets 21

What Actually Happened

(14:13) 2-B.Maher 40 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-91-L.Ladouceur, Holder-6-C.Jones.

The Three Options

GO +1.08 EP
  • 34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 13, worth +5.01 EP
  • 66% chance to fail: New York Jets takes over around their own 22, worth -0.94 EP
KICK +1.46 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 88% chance to make a 39-yard field goal: 3 points, then New York Jets takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.87 EP
  • 12% chance to miss: New York Jets takes over around their own 32, worth -1.59 EP
PUNT -0.13 EP
  • New York Jets would take over around their own 11, worth -0.13 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model