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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Dallas Cowboys 4th & 5 at the 62

Dallas Cowboys 0 – New York Jets 0

What Actually Happened

(11:29) 6-C.Jones punts 55 yards to NYJ 7, Center-91-L.Ladouceur. 10-B.Berrios to NYJ 17 for 10 yards (29-C.Goodwin).

The Three Options

GO -1.00 EP
Model's Pick
  • 49% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 57, worth +1.89 EP
  • 51% chance to fail: New York Jets takes over around their own 62, worth -3.72 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (79 yards).

PUNT -1.03 EP
What Happened
  • New York Jets would take over around their own 21, worth -1.03 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model