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ATL Away

Atlanta Falcons

HC Dan Quinn
@
ARI Home

Arizona Cardinals

HC Kliff Kingsbury
Sunday 2019-10-13 · 16:05 State Farm Stadium, Glendale US 🏟 Dome Spread -3.0 O/U 52.5

Win Probability

ATL
66.3%
ARI
33.7%
🏟 Dome

Confidence: <strong>clear edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • ATL offense: +0.089 EPA/play over its last 8 games (4th in the league)
  • ARI defense: +0.136 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (31st in the league)
  • ARI offense: -0.104 EPA/play over its last 8 games (28th in the league)
  • Kyler Murray (ARI): -0.047 EPA/dropback in prior starts
  • Indoors — weather neutralised
  • ATL defense: +0.082 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (27th in the league)

Predicted Final Score

ATL 27
–
ARI 20
Projected margin: ATL by 7 Projected total: 47

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 6

ATL

Desmond Trufant CB Out Toe
Matt Wile P Out right Quadricep
Blidi Wreh-Wilson CB Out Groin

ARI

Dennis Gardeck LB Out Ankle
Ezekiel Turner LB Out Hamstring
Charles Washington S Out Shoulder
Zach Allen DE Questionable Neck
Terrell Suggs LB Questionable Back
Damiere Byrd WR Questionable Hamstring
David Johnson RB Questionable Back
Christian Kirk WR Questionable Ankle
Andy Lee P Questionable right Hip
Haason Reddick LB Questionable Shoulder
Trevor Williams CB Questionable Hip

Pulled fresh for 2019 week 6 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

ATL 33
–
ARI 34

Prediction missed by 8 pts on margin, 20 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 09:30 TD ATL (9:30) (Shotgun) 2-M.Ryan pass short right to 18-C.Ridley for 9 yards, TOUCHDOWN. ATL 6 – ARI 0
  • Q1 05:45 FG ARI (5:45) 5-Z.Gonzalez 39 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-A.Brewer, Holder-4-A.Lee. ATL 7 – ARI 3
  • Q2 13:08 TD ARI (13:08) (Shotgun) 1-K.Murray pass short left to 29-C.Edmonds for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. ATL 7 – ARI 9
  • Q2 09:06 TD ARI (9:06) 31-D.Johnson up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. ATL 7 – ARI 16
  • Q2 03:41 FG ATL (3:41) 3-M.Bryant 29 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-8-M.Schaub. ATL 10 – ARI 17
  • Q2 00:07 FG ARI (:07) 5-Z.Gonzalez 22 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-A.Brewer, Holder-4-A.Lee. ATL 10 – ARI 20
  • Q3 11:34 TD ARI (11:34) (Shotgun) 1-K.Murray pass short left to 87-M.Williams for 20 yards, TOUCHDOWN. ATL 10 – ARI 26
  • Q3 07:51 FG ATL (7:51) 3-M.Bryant 44 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-8-M.Schaub. ATL 13 – ARI 27
  • Q3 01:08 TD ATL (1:08) (Shotgun) 2-M.Ryan pass short middle to 24-D.Freeman for 7 yards, TOUCHDOWN. ATL 19 – ARI 27
  • Q4 10:56 TD ATL (10:56) 2-M.Ryan pass short left to 81-A.Hooper for 6 yards, TOUCHDOWN. ATL 26 – ARI 27
  • Q4 05:18 TD ARI (5:18) (Shotgun) 1-K.Murray pass short left to 31-D.Johnson for 14 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Penalty on ATL-59-D.Campbell, Defensive Pass Interference, declined. ATL 27 – ARI 33
  • Q4 02:00 TD ATL (2:00) (Shotgun) 2-M.Ryan pass short middle to 24-D.Freeman for 12 yards, TOUCHDOWN. ATL 33 – ARI 34

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 ARI 4th & 3 at the 21
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 47% p(FG) 90%

    (5:45) 5-Z.Gonzalez 39 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-A.Brewer, Holder-4-A.Lee.

  • Q1 ATL 4th & 16 at the 55
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 29%

    (3:02) 9-K.Redfern punts 41 yards to ARI 14, Center-47-J.Harris, fair catch by 12-P.Cooper.

  • Q2 ATL 4th & 11 at the 72
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 36%

    (11:07) 9-K.Redfern punts 54 yards to ARI 18, Center-47-J.Harris. 12-P.Cooper to ARI 21 for 3 yards (41-S.Neasman).

  • Q2 ATL 4th & 7 at the 11
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 36% p(FG) 96%

    (3:41) 3-M.Bryant 29 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-8-M.Schaub.

  • Q3 ARI 4th & 2 at the 35
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 56% p(FG) 69%

    (12:56) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 1-K.Murray pass short right to 85-C.Clay to ATL 29 for 6 yards (59-D.Campbell).

  • Q3 ATL 4th & 7 at the 26
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 38% p(FG) 85%

    (7:51) 3-M.Bryant 44 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-8-M.Schaub.

  • Q3 ARI 4th & 10 at the 53
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 32% p(FG) 26%

    (5:48) 4-A.Lee punts 41 yards to ATL 12, Center-46-A.Brewer. 38-K.Barner to ATL 21 for 9 yards (37-D.Foster). PENALTY on ATL-39-D.White, Illegal Block Above the Waist, 7 yards, enforced at ATL 14.

  • Q4 ARI 4th & 1 at the 66
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.01 EP
    p(convert) 71%

    (14:15) 4-A.Lee punts 59 yards to ATL 7, Center-46-A.Brewer. 38-K.Barner to ATL 17 for 10 yards (89-A.Isabella; 16-T.Sherfield).

  • Q4 ARI 4th & 10 at the 75
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 34%

    (9:27) 4-A.Lee punts 56 yards to ATL 19, Center-46-A.Brewer. 38-K.Barner to ATL 24 for 5 yards (59-J.Walker; 87-M.Williams). PENALTY on ATL-14-J.Hardy, Illegal Block Above the Waist, 10 yards, enforced at ATL 24.

  • Q4 ATL 4th & 16 at the 75
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 31%

    (7:27) (Punt formation) 9-K.Redfern punts 35 yards to ARI 40, Center-47-J.Harris, fair catch by 12-P.Cooper. PENALTY on ATL-41-S.Neasman, Fair Catch Interference, 15 yards, enforced at ARI 40.