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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Arizona Cardinals 4th & 3 at the 21

Arizona Cardinals 0 – Atlanta Falcons 7

What Actually Happened

(5:45) 5-Z.Gonzalez 39 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-A.Brewer, Holder-4-A.Lee.

The Three Options

GO +2.42 EP
  • 47% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 18, worth +4.95 EP
  • 53% chance to fail: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 21, worth +0.15 EP
KICK +2.60 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 90% chance to make a 38-yard field goal: 3 points, then Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.93 EP
  • 10% chance to miss: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 31, worth -0.51 EP
PUNT +0.84 EP
  • Atlanta Falcons would take over around their own 11, worth +0.84 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model