Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Atlanta Falcons 4th & 11 at the 72

Atlanta Falcons 7 – Arizona Cardinals 10

(11:07) 9-K.Redfern punts 54 yards to ARI 18, Center-47-J.Harris. 12-P.Cooper to ARI 21 for 3 yards (41-S.Neasman).

The Three Options

GO -1.79 EP

36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 61, worth +2.53 EP
64% chance to fail: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 72, worth -4.28 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (89 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model