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Tampa Bay Buccaneers

HC Bruce Arians
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Los Angeles Rams

HC Sean McVay
Sunday 2019-09-29 · 16:05 Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum, Los Angeles US ☀️ Clear Spread 9.0 O/U 48.5

Win Probability

TB
34.1%
LA
65.9%
☀️ Clear

Confidence: <strong>clear edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • LA offense: +0.089 EPA/play over its last 8 games (6th in the league)
  • TB offense: -0.047 EPA/play over its last 8 games (25th in the league)
  • LA defense: -0.054 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (9th in the league)
  • Jared Goff (LA): -0.005 EPA/dropback in prior starts

Predicted Final Score

TB 22
–
LA 26
Projected margin: LA by 4 Projected total: 48

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 4

TB

Jamel Dean CB Out Ankle
Devin White LB Out Knee
Demar Dotson T Questionable Calf
Chris Godwin WR Questionable Hip
Ryan Jensen C Questionable Back

LA

No players on the report.

Pulled fresh for 2019 week 4 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

TB 55
–
LA 40

Prediction missed by 19 pts on margin, 47 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 10:57 TD TB (10:57) (Shotgun) 25-P.Barber left guard for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN. TB 6 – LA 0
  • Q2 10:04 TD TB (10:04) (Shotgun) 3-J.Winston pass short right to 12-C.Godwin for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN. TB 13 – LA 0
  • Q2 08:35 TD TB (8:35) 3-J.Winston pass short right to 12-C.Godwin for 9 yards, TOUCHDOWN. TB 20 – LA 0
  • Q2 05:41 TD LA (5:41) 30-T.Gurley right tackle for 13 yards, TOUCHDOWN. TB 21 – LA 6
  • Q2 02:55 TD LA (2:55) (Shotgun) 16-J.Goff pass short middle to 81-G.Everett for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN. TB 21 – LA 13
  • Q2 00:52 TD TB (:52) (Shotgun) 27-R.Jones up the middle for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN. TB 27 – LA 14
  • Q2 00:07 FG LA (:07) 4-G.Zuerlein 58 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.McQuaide, Holder-6-J.Hekker. TB 28 – LA 17
  • Q3 09:08 FG LA (9:08) 4-G.Zuerlein 44 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.McQuaide, Holder-6-J.Hekker. TB 28 – LA 20
  • Q3 04:38 FG TB (4:38) 9-M.Gay 58 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-97-Z.Triner, Holder-8-B.Pinion. TB 31 – LA 20
  • Q4 15:00 TD TB (15:00) 3-J.Winston pass short middle to 84-C.Brate for 13 yards, TOUCHDOWN. TB 37 – LA 20
  • Q4 12:37 TD LA (12:37) (No Huddle) 30-T.Gurley up the middle for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN. TB 38 – LA 26
  • Q4 11:48 TD TB (11:48) 3-J.Winston pass deep middle to 13-M.Evans for 67 yards, TOUCHDOWN. TB 44 – LA 27
  • Q4 09:21 TD LA (9:21) (Shotgun) 16-J.Goff pass short right to 18-C.Kupp for 29 yards, TOUCHDOWN. TB 45 – LA 33
  • Q4 08:25 TD LA (8:25) (Shotgun) 3-J.Winston pass deep left intended for 85-B.Wilson INTERCEPTED by 22-M.Peters at TB 32. 22-M.Peters for 32 yards, TOUCHDOWN. TB 45 – LA 40
  • Q4 02:37 FG TB (2:37) 9-M.Gay 21 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-97-Z.Triner, Holder-8-B.Pinion. TB 48 – LA 40
  • Q4 01:17 TD TB (1:17) (Shotgun) 16-J.Goff sacked at LA 43 for -11 yards (58-S.Barrett). FUMBLES (58-S.Barrett) [58-S.Barrett], RECOVERED by TB-93-N.Suh at LA 37. 93-N.Suh for 37 yards, TOUCHDOWN. TB 54 – LA 40

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 LA 4th & 7 at the 50
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 39% p(FG) 31%

    (8:26) 6-J.Hekker punts 41 yards to TB 9, Center-44-J.McQuaide, downed by LA-51-T.Reeder.

  • Q1 TB 4th & 19 at the 46
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 22% p(FG) 40%

    (2:07) 8-B.Pinion punts 46 yards to end zone, Center-97-Z.Triner, Touchback.

  • Q2 TB 4th & 12 at the 77
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 32%

    (4:16) 8-B.Pinion punts 42 yards to LA 35, Center-97-Z.Triner, fair catch by 19-J.Natson. PENALTY on TB-26-S.Bunting, Fair Catch Interference, 15 yards, enforced at LA 35.

  • Q3 TB 4th & 10 at the 40
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 30% p(FG) 56%

    (4:38) 9-M.Gay 58 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-97-Z.Triner, Holder-8-B.Pinion.

  • Q3 LA 4th & 2 at the 40
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 59% p(FG) 56%

    (2:54) (Shotgun) 16-J.Goff pass short right intended for 34-M.Brown INTERCEPTED by 58-S.Barrett at TB 43. 58-S.Barrett pushed ob at TB 47 for 4 yards (79-R.Havenstein).

  • Q4 TB 4th & 3 at the 3 late-game
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.54 EP
    p(convert) 44% p(FG) 98%

    (2:37) 9-M.Gay 21 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-97-Z.Triner, Holder-8-B.Pinion.