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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 4th & 10 at the 40

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 28 – Los Angeles Rams 20

What Actually Happened

(4:38) 9-M.Gay 58 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-97-Z.Triner, Holder-8-B.Pinion.

The Three Options

GO -0.32 EP
  • 30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 30, worth +3.92 EP
  • 70% chance to fail: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 40, worth -2.14 EP
KICK -0.25 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 56% chance to make a 57-yard field goal: 3 points, then Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.80 EP
  • 44% chance to miss: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 49, worth -2.83 EP
PUNT -0.36 EP
  • Los Angeles Rams would take over around their own 11, worth -0.36 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model