Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Los Angeles Rams 4th & 7 at the 50

Los Angeles Rams 0 – Tampa Bay Buccaneers 7

(8:26) 6-J.Hekker punts 41 yards to TB 9, Center-44-J.McQuaide, downed by LA-51-T.Reeder.

The Three Options

GO -0.20 EP

39% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 43, worth +3.37 EP
61% chance to fail: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 50, worth -2.49 EP

KICK -0.98 EP

31% chance to make a 67-yard field goal: 3 points, then Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.41 EP
69% chance to miss: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 49, worth -2.49 EP

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model